Zelman Insights

Mortgage Rates, The “Stuck Factor,” and the Return of Housing Mobility

April 02, 2026 by Kim Gray

At Walker & Dunlop’s recent Investor Day, Ivy Zelman delivered a clear message: today’s housing market is not defined by a lack of demand; it is defined by constraint. While affordability remains stretched, the more immediate force shaping housing activity is what Zelman describes as the “stuck factor.” Elevated mortgage rates relative to historic lows have fundamentally altered homeowner behavior, limiting mobility and suppressing transaction volume, even as underlying life events continue to drive movement...

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mortgage rates

County Population Data Show Strongest Growth in TX and Central FL While Higher-Cost Urban Areas Decelerated Most

March 31, 2026 by Kevin Kaczmarek

County population growth in the year ending July 2025 remained strongest in parts of TX and central FL, while changes in immigration policy appeared to weigh on growth in several higher-cost urban markets. Following the release of state-level population data last month, Census recently released county-level population estimates for the year ending July 2025...

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demographics household formation

Oil Price Spike Risks Producers’ Profitability Aspirations

March 19, 2026 by McClaran Hayes

As the conflict in Iran stretches into its third week, oil prices have jumped higher by 40%-plus since the end of February, and are up by a similar rate on a year-over-year basis. Holding current price levels constant, oil prices are on track to be up by roughly 50% on a year-over-year basis in 2Q-3Q26...

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Building Products

Launching Coverage on the MH REITs: Expect Valuation Premium to Shrink, Initiating at Underweight

March 16, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

We are initiating coverage on the manufactured housing REIT sector with an Underweight rating relative to the S&P 500. The land-lease model, with resident-owned homes, long resident tenures and constrained supply, supports some of the steadiest rent growth and highest core NOI margins among residential REITs. Even with these defensive benefits, valuation screens as expensive relative to history and residential REIT peers, limiting further upside – particularly against a backdrop of decelerating cash flow growth in 2027 versus acceleration for the apartment and single-family REITs, with convergence to the 3-4% range across all three sectors. While our sector rating is relative to the broader market, our stock ratings for SUI and ELS are relative to each other. We are initiating coverage of SUI at Outperform with a $127.75 fair value target and 5% present value downside, and ELS at Underperform with a $59.25 fair value target and 13% present value downside as we expect the valuation gap between the two companies to narrow...

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Manufactured Housing

Housing CPI Versus Reality

March 12, 2026 by Mark Franceski

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Consumer Price Index results for February and, as we have since early 2022, we broke down the housing component and its impact on overall inflation. Housing CPI increased 3.1% year over year, the 53^rd straight month of at least 3% growth, and well above other measures of rent growth. Here we take a less technical approach to the topic, discussing why we think it’s important, how it stacks up against other rental market data, and thinking about how it might behave in the future....

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apartments single-family rental

New Home Market Showing Signs of Thawing Out as Spring Approaches

March 06, 2026 by Alan Ratner

After a brutally-cold winter across most of the country, both the weather and the housing market are beginning to show early signs of thawing out as spring approaches. However, there are many crosscurrents to consider as we analyze the new home market backdrop entering the pivotal selling season....

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homebuilding

Manufactured Housing Policy: Improving on the Margin

February 23, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

Affordability remains a clear policy priority, but manufactured housing – the most affordable ownership option – has often been underrepresented in the broader debate. Even so, the policy backdrop continues to get incrementally better on two fronts: (1) state-level zoning reform that reduces discriminatory local barriers and (2) imminent federal HUD Code modernization...

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Manufactured Housing

Envisioning the future of build-to-rent: Zelman advises on ResiBuilt’s sale to Invitation Homes

February 18, 2026 by Tony McGill

Zelman, a Walker & Dunlop company, served as the exclusive sell-side investment banker to RESICAP on the divestiture of its build-to-rent homebuilding and development platform, ResiBuilt, to Invitation Homes. The transaction represents a defining moment for the build-to-rent (BTR) sector and underscores the continued evolution of institutional investment in purpose-built housing...

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build-for-rent housing

Furniture Demand Faces the Elasticity Test, but Housing Turnover and Home Price Appreciation Hold the Key

February 13, 2026 by Marius Morar

With tariff-driven price increases now flowing through the furniture industry, the question of how much demand destruction higher prices will cause has become increasingly relevant. Over the last year, incremental tariffs on imports from China, India, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have pushed furniture prices materially higher. The CPI reported a 4.0% year-over-year price increase for furniture and bedding in January 2026, accelerating for two consecutive months from an average of 2.9% in October and November...

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affordability housing supply

Shift in International Immigration Slows National Population Growth, NY and NJ Growth Most Impacted

February 10, 2026 by Kevin Kaczmarek

Census recently released updated population estimates for the year ending July 1, 2025, showing growth slowed to 0.52%, the slowest since COVID-impacted 2020, driven by a significant deceleration in international immigration. State-level detail showed VT, HI, WV, NM and CA ranking at the bottom, with growth rates of...

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demographics homeownership household formation