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U.N. Population Reduction Likely First of Many to Come

July 14, 2022 by Dennis McGill

Earlier this week, the United Nations published updated global population estimates, the first release since 2019 and the onset of the pandemic. Not surprisingly given our concerns around decelerating demographic growth detailed in our Cradle to Grave report, the U.N. cut its United States outlook for the current decade by 14%.

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demographics

Fighting Over a Melting Ice Cube?

April 29, 2022 by Dennis McGill

In our Cradle to Grave thematic report published last August, we raised the concern that population growth was on a “troubling trajectory”, but it has been dismissed by many as not a problem in “their” markets. Is this true?

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demographics macro housing

Is the 2021 Baby Bump Temporary or Shift in Direction?

February 10, 2022 by Dennis McGill

In 2020, national births plunged 3.6%, the largest decline since 1972, attributable to slowing young adult population growth and a historic low in fertility rates. Given the lagging effect of the pandemic and concerns about the recessionary drag on planned births, as part of our Cradle to Grave thematic report, we forecasted births to decline another 2.8% in 2021. It turns out, it is likely that births increased for the first time since 2014.

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demographics millennials

Share of Homebuyers With Weaker Credit Profiles Bouncing Back, But Not Everywhere

February 03, 2022 by Kevin Kaczmarek

As we noted in our latest mortgage survey and November newsletter, lower-quality credits have been gaining share in the home purchase market and likely will continue to do so, barring a sudden resurgence in refinance activity. Some may ask how this can be the case given daily media headlines describing red-hot housing markets and affordability crises. Before addressing that, we should examine some facts...

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affordability demographics homeownership macro housing mortgage mortgage rates new home sales

Labor Shortages Abound, Not So For Realtors Chasing Robust Pricing

October 27, 2021 by Ryan McKeveny

With severe labor shortages throughout the economy, including in the construction sector, one area seeing fairly unfettered expansion is the real estate agent community, encouraged by the housing market’s strength over the last 18 months and low barriers to entry. The National Association of Realtors’ membership, a rough proxy for industry-wide agent count, has reached its highest level ever...

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demographics homeownership household formation housing macro housing real estate services supply

Are Housing Demand and Supply Set on Diverging Courses?

October 21, 2021 by Dennis McGill

One of the critical conclusions expressed in our recent thematic demographic report, Cradle to Grave, was that “the seeds of oversupply are being planted.” In an environment where the widely-accepted belief is that there is a housing shortage, the statement has naturally drawn skepticism.

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apartments build-for-rent demographics homebuilding housing starts macro housing supply

New Data from Census Confirms Weakest Household Growth in Nation’s History Last Decade

August 12, 2021 by Dennis McGill

Earlier today, the Census Bureau released additional information collected during the 2020 Census, following the initial release of national and state population totals in April that we discussed in a previous blog. According to the results, there were 126.8 million households as of April 1^st, 2020, representing an 8.7% increase from 2010, or an additional 10.1 million households. This marked the slowest decade of household formation in the country’s history...

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demographics household formation macro housing

High-Level Decennial Census Results Revealed – What Did We Learn?

April 26, 2021 by Dennis McGill

Today, the Census Bureau released national and state population totals as tabulated by the Decennial Census. The government arm estimates the country’s population via numerous surveys and programs throughout the decade, but the Decennial Census is by far the most rigorous and relied upon. So what did we learn?

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demographics macro housing

Search for Fresh Air Key in 2020, but Not New

January 05, 2021 by Dennis McGill

Although 2020 will likely go down as one of the strongest years on record for home sales and home price appreciation, it paralleled one of the weakest population backdrops in our country's history...

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demographics

Immigration Policy Likely to be a Net Positive for Housing Under Biden

December 07, 2020 by Ivy Zelman, Dennis McGill & Alan Ratner

With President-elect Joe Biden set to occupy the White House on January 20th, there has been a lot of discussion about the potential impact of tax reform, student debt forgiveness and a proposed homebuyer tax credit on the housing market. Ultimately, a lot will depend upon the outcome of...

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demographics homebuilding homeownership household formation macro housing