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Tag: macro housing

Mischaracterization of Single-Family Investors Impacts Perceived Demand, Risk

July 12, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

In a blog post in late June (Don’t Call it a Comeback: Housing Investors Have Been Here for Years), CoreLogic raised some eyebrows with the conclusion that “in 2018, the share of home sales bought by investors reached its highest level in two ...

Zelman Beige Book Index Provides Some Comfort Around Recessionary Fears

June 14, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Eight times a year, the Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book, a qualitative assessment of economic conditions around the country based on conversations with business executives. Incorporating publications dating back to 1970, we have constructed ...

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macro housing

What Do Housing Unit Estimates by State Tell About Demographic Trends?

May 31, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

As most recently discussed in December, we have a proprietary process to analyze and estimate national housing units, households and vacancies, including our unique incorporation of residential electric customer ...

As Housing Sentiment and Actions Often Contradict, What Factors Matter Most?

May 17, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, Fannie Mae released the results of its monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which is “designed to track consumers’ housing-related attitudes, intentions and perceptions.” As a research firm, we always find value in surveys, assuming ...

The Percentage of Construction Workers Saying “I Quit” a Sign of the Times

April 05, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

In 2018, the national unemployment rate averaged 3.9%, the first year below 4.0% since 1969, which has been a positive for wage growth and potential entry-level homebuyers. However, the other side of that coin has been a shortage of labor in ...

Warning Lights Flashing Red for Healthcare Costs and Housing Affordability

April 05, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), personal consumption expenditures totaled $13.9 trillion in 2018, up 4.7% year over year versus a 5.0% increase in disposable income, which was aided by wage growth and tax reform. The BEA ...

Historically Linked, Here’s Why Housing Outlook Far Superior to Autos

March 08, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Historically, the housing and auto markets have been highly linked given the big-ticket nature of the consumer purchases and the dependence on credit for the majority of buyers. For example, from 1990-2016, auto sales and housing starts have ...

Is Substantial Drop in Lumber Prices a Signal for Single-Family Housing?

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

According to Random Lengths, framing lumber prices in December were down 22% year over year and 41% from the monthly peak in June. Similarly, its structural panel composite index declined 14% year over year and stood 35% lower than the near-term ...

Key Factors Behind Packing Up and Moving Across the Country

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, United Van Lines, the largest moving company in the country, released its annual National Movers Survey, which provides insight into state-to-state moves. Although professional long-distance moves likely skew toward single-family ...

Latest Population Estimates Offer First Look at Impact of Tax Reform

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Following the passage of income tax reform a year ago, we detailed the relative winners and losers and the expected impact on housing demand. At that time, it was estimated that the largest shares ...