The Zelman Buzz

Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading research team

Be Mindful as Media Sensationalizes Student Debt Impact on Housing

January 25, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

As of the latest reading from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, $1.4 trillion of student debt was outstanding in 3Q18, up 6.3% year over year, outpacing the increase in total consumer debt for the 57th consecutive quarter. Said differently, ...

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Filed Under | student debt

Key Factors Behind Packing Up and Moving Across the Country

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, United Van Lines, the largest moving company in the country, released its annual National Movers Survey, which provides insight into state-to-state moves. Although professional long-distance moves likely skew toward single-family ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmacro housing

Industry Executives Quicker to Respond to Market Shifts than Economists

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

With total home closings estimated to have declined 2% in 2018, the first contraction since 2011, and inventory higher on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2014, the home price appreciation outlook is coming under greater scrutiny ...

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Filed Under | home pricingsurvey

Why an Often-Cited Existing Home Price Measure is Probably Wrong

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

In its most recent monthly release for November 2018, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the median price for existing home closings was $257,700, bringing the year-to-date figure to $257,500. With approximately 40% of ...

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Filed Under | affordabilityhome pricing

Is Substantial Drop in Lumber Prices a Signal for Single-Family Housing?

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

According to Random Lengths, framing lumber prices in December were down 22% year over year and 41% from the monthly peak in June. Similarly, its structural panel composite index declined 14% year over year and stood 35% lower than the near-term ...

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Filed Under | homebuildingmacro housing

Latest Population Estimates Offer First Look at Impact of Tax Reform

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Following the passage of income tax reform a year ago, we detailed the relative winners and losers and the expected impact on housing demand. At that time, it was estimated that the largest shares ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmacro housing

As Consumer Debt Hits New Peak, It’s Not the Young Flashing Warning Signs

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases data on household debt and credit, which is often referenced to understand total leverage across the consumer, including details across the major sources: mortgages, student debt, ...

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Filed Under | baby boomersmacro housingmillennials

Why are So Many People Just Staying Put?

December 14, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to our analysis of recently-released Census Bureau data, approximately 10% of current householders moved over the year ended 1Q18, down from 11% in the year-ago period and continuing a multi-decade decline. For perspective, this share ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmacro housing

Halfway Through 2018, Births Reverse Surprising Decline of 2017

November 30, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2007, there were an estimated 4.32 million births, according to data from the Center for Disease Control, ranking as the largest annual total in the history of the country. Since that time, births have declined each year through 2017 aside ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmillennials

Is Fear of Homeowners Trapped by Low Mortgage Rate Justified?

November 30, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the effective rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage bottomed at approximately 3.30% in late-2012. From 2012-17, the rate was below 4.00% in 208 out of 313 weeks, or 66% of the time. With the latest ...

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Filed Under | macro housingmortgage rates